A dry slot arrives Saturday and Saturday night as the main warm conveyer belt and deeper moisture shift offshore, with additional deeper moisture lagging back over the Appalachians associated with the remnant mid-level circulation of Ian. There is a marginal tornado threat Friday night across far SE VA/NE NC as a warm sector tries to push onshore. Although, it is worth noting that the 29/00z HREF does have some 3"/3hr rainfall probs in SE VA/NE NC 18Z Friday-00z Saturday, so the potential for excessive rates will need to be monitored as that could overcome the dry antecedent conditions. Antecedent conditions are quite dry going into this event, so a flood watch has not been issued yet. Current guidance supports QPF of 1-2" NW, to 3-4" (and locally higher) SE through 12z Saturday. The general consensus amongst the 29/00z model guidance is for a faster arrival to deeper moisture Friday, and a quicker exit Saturday. GOES water vapor channels currently show a plume of tropical moisture spreading N ahead of Ian, and this will move N into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday and Friday night. Tropical Storm Ian is showing early signs of extratropical transition early this morning, and this will continue through Friday as it makes it's second landfall as a tropical storm Friday afternoon along the SC coast.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Lows range from around 50F NW, to the lower to mid 60s SE. Increasing and lowering clouds tonight with rain pushing into NE NC late.
High temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Mainly dry today, although a few sprinkles are possible across coastal portions of NE NC this afternoon. High clouds will thicken today, with some bands of lower clouds pushing into SE VA/NE NC during the afternoon. Farther inland, expect a NNE wind of 10-15 mph with gusts to ~20mph. The pressure gradient will tighten today and conditions will become rather breezy along the coast with a 15-25 mph NE wind occasionally gusting to ~30 mph. Meanwhile, high pressure will build east toward New England and weaken slightly but still is progged to be ~1030mb. Ian is expected to move off the coast of Florida today and tonight. Not quite as cool early this morning, with temperatures ranging from around 50F NW, to the lower to mid 60s SE. Otherwise, the airmass is dry locally associated with the high to the northeast. High clouds continue to stream northeast well ahead of Ian. At the surface, 1035mb high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. Tropical Storm Ian is tracking NE across Florida early this morning ahead of an upper trough over the Northeast. Low pressure will then linger off the Mid-Atlantic coast later this weekend into early next week as high pressure persists over New England. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ian is forecasted to track off the east coast of Florida later today and then make a second landfall later Friday along the South Carolina coast, before weakening over the Carolinas Saturday. Strong high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into New England today through Saturday. Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA (on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionĪREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
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